TDSB Lottery Admissions Policy Hurts Student Math Performance, New Analysis Shows
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Toronto, ON—A new analysis of University of Waterloo math contest results shows that the Toronto District School Board’s (TDSB) 2022 admissions policy change, which replaced exams with a lottery for specialized high school programs, has had a dramatic negative impact on student achievement.
The University of Waterloo runs nationwide mathematics contests, including the Pascal Contest (Grade 9) and Cayley Contest (Grade 10), which are recognized as leading indicators of mathematical excellence.
Save Our Schools (SOS), an education advocacy nonprofit analyzed the results for Toronto students from 2016 to 2025. Key findings from the report include:
The implementation of the central lottery admissions process coincided with a sharp decline in TDSB student performance in the two contests.
In 2024, there were four TDSB schools ranked in the top 20 for the grade 10 math contest (2 with specialized programs and 2 without specialized programs). In 2025 (the first year where the grade 10 students were selected via lottery admissions), there were no TDSB schools ranked in the top 20.
Grade 9 results for the lottery cohorts (2024 and 2025) fell to about 50% of previous levels, while Grade 10 results for the first lottery cohort (2025) dropped to roughly 25% - 30% of pre-lottery performance.
This decline is unique to TDSB. No comparable drop occurred in other Toronto or Ontario schools that did not implement a similar admissions policy. The data cannot be explained by COVID-19 learning loss, nor students leaving for non-TDSB schools.
Instead, the evidence points to a causal link between the lottery and lower performance, likely due to disruption of supportive learning environments and peer networks.
“These results are alarming,” said Marcin Pęski, who co-authored the analysis. “By depriving students of the opportunity to realize their potential, the lottery system failed the basic goal of public education. The result is clear: Toronto students are falling behind in math.”
Save Our Schools is calling on the TDSB to replace its admissions lottery policy with a new merit-based model that promotes excellence and opportunity for all students, including in mathematics.
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Save Our Schools (SOS) is a coalition of students, parents, educators and community members focused on promoting transparency, accountability, and excellence in public education. SOS was founded in 2023 and is a registered Ontario not-for-profit corporation.
Media Contact:
Michael Danishevsky
michael.danishevsky@soschools.ca / (647) 836-3116
